Measurement
Direct or reconstructed observation with a defined dataset, baseline, period and uncertainty.
Evidence ledger
Methodology
& sources
A claim should be no stronger than its source, and every projection should state the assumptions that make it true.
Claim rules
Projection
A conditional model result. The scenario and assumptions must remain attached to the number.
Commitment
A stated target or policy promise. It is not counted as an achieved result.
Assessment
Collective Signal’s synthesis, labeled separately and open to revision.
Primary source ledger
Temperature and Earth-system indicators
WMO · State of the Global Climate 2025
Used for 2025 temperature, ocean heat, energy imbalance, sea ice, glaciers and high-level impacts.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide
NOAA GML · Mauna Loa CO₂ trends
Used for June 2026 and June 2025 monthly means from the NOAA page snapshot last updated July 5, 2026. Accessed August 9, 2026. NOAA notes that values may receive small quality-control revisions.
Emissions and carbon budgets
Global Carbon Budget 2025 · Key targets
Used for projected 2025 fossil CO₂ and remaining budgets as of January 2026.
Policy pathways
UNEP · Emissions Gap Report 2025
Used for current-policy, pledge and net-zero warming pathways and 2024 total GHG emissions. The 2025 report also explains that methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement from its 2024 trajectory assessment and that the pending U.S. Paris withdrawal offsets another 0.1°C.
Energy transition
IEA · World Energy Investment 2025 · Renewables 2025
Used for clean-energy investment and renewable-electricity projections.
International process
Used for the November 9–20, 2026 Antalya conference.
U.S. executive policy
Paris withdrawal order · UNFCCC/IPCC withdrawal memorandum · Energy order · Wind memorandum
Used to describe administration policy from controlling presidential documents.
U.S. vehicle regulation
EPA · February 2026 final rule
Used for the rescission of the vehicle endangerment finding and related standards.
Known limits and next research
- This first version is global and necessarily compresses large regional differences.
- It does not yet contain country-by-country emissions, historical responsibility, per-capita emissions, climate finance, adaptation readiness or loss-and-damage tracking.
- It does not yet audit corporate transition plans or national pledges individually.
- It does not yet synthesize COP30 outcomes, Global Stocktake follow-through or country-by-country progress ahead of COP31.
- Extreme-event attribution must be sourced event by event; the dashboard does not assert that every disaster was caused by climate change.
- Remaining carbon budgets depend on probability, non-CO₂ warming, Earth-system response and methodological choices.