Above the 1850–1900 average. One hot year is not the same as the Paris Agreement’s long-term threshold.
WMOGlobal climate signal
Where are we
with global warming?
The planet is warmer, greenhouse gases are still accumulating, and global emissions have not begun a sustained decline. Clean-energy deployment is moving quickly, but current policy remains far from a low-risk path.
Current assessment: warming has not stabilized
Planetary vital signs
The shortest honest answer
Mauna Loa monthly mean, up from 429.61 ppm in June 2025. NOAA snapshot last updated July 5, 2026.
NOAAA record high, projected to rise 1.1% from 2024.
Global Carbon BudgetEstimated warming over this century if policies currently in place continue.
UNEPRoughly four years at 2025 emissions. The estimate is uncertain and shrinks as emissions continue.
Global Carbon BudgetBottom line: the long-term warming level is approaching 1.5°C, but “we crossed 1.5°C in a single year” and “the Paris threshold has permanently been exceeded” are not equivalent statements. The durable problem is the continuing accumulation of greenhouse gases.
Where we are going
The future is a range of choices, not one forecast
These pathways are conditional estimates from UNEP’s 2025 assessment, not predictions with guaranteed outcomes. The current-policy estimate fell from 3.1°C in UNEP’s 2024 report to 2.8°C; UNEP attributes 0.1°C of the change to methodology updates and notes that the pending U.S. Paris withdrawal offsets another 0.1°C of improvement.
Static scenario summary: current policies 2.8°C; national pledges fully delivered 2.3–2.5°C; conditional pledges plus all announced net-zero commitments 1.9°C. These cases depend on implementation and are not equally likely.
1.5°2.0°2.5°3.0°C
2.8°C
Policies now in force
This is the direction implied by implemented policy—not announced goals. It remains well above the Paris temperature goals.
Why every fraction matters
Temperature targets are not cliffs separating “safe” from “doomed.” Risks and damages rise with additional warming, so preventing 2.8°C remains valuable even if 1.5°C is exceeded.
Near-term outlook
WMO estimated a 70% chance that the 2025–2029 five-year average would exceed 1.5°C, while noting that long-term warming averaged over decades remained below 1.5°C when that forecast was issued.
WMO forecastWhat the Earth system shows
Temperature is one instrument panel light
Ocean heat
Ocean heat continued rising in 2025. The ocean has absorbed heat equivalent to about eighteen times annual human energy use each year over the past two decades.
Earth’s energy imbalance
The imbalance between incoming and outgoing energy reached the highest level in the 65-year record used by WMO.
Ice and glaciers
Annual Arctic sea ice was at or near a record low in 2025; Antarctic annual extent was the third lowest; glacier loss continued.
Impacts
Heat, heavy rainfall, tropical cyclones and wildfires continued to affect health, food systems, displacement, infrastructure and economies. Attribution must be assessed event by event.
What is changing
Real progress—still not enough
Projected 2025 investment in clean technologies—twice fossil-fuel investment.
IEAProjected renewable share of global electricity from 2024 to 2030.
IEAGrowth in global greenhouse-gas emissions in 2024, reaching 57.7 GtCO₂e.
UNEPInterpretation: deployment success in electricity is slowing emissions growth, but total greenhouse-gas emissions are still rising. Both facts are necessary to understand the signal.
Who is responsible for what
An accountability map, not a list of villains
National governments
Set energy, transport, land-use, industrial and finance rules; submit Paris pledges; fund adaptation; and negotiate through the UNFCCC.
Test:Are implemented policies consistent with stated targets?
Fossil-energy producers
Supply fuels that remain central to the economy and are the largest source of anthropogenic CO₂.
Test:Are production and investment plans consistent with claimed transition pathways?
Power, industry and transport
Build or retire long-lived infrastructure and determine whether clean technologies displace fossil use or merely add supply.
Test:Are absolute emissions falling?
Finance and investors
Determine the cost and availability of capital for both high- and low-emission systems.
Test:Do financed-emissions claims match actual portfolios?
States, cities and communities
Control buildings, transport, land use, resilience and implementation even when national policy retreats.
Test:Are plans funded, enforced and measured?
People and civil society
Vote, organize, litigate, innovate, work, consume and hold institutions accountable—but do not all possess equal power or responsibility.
Test:Does participation change institutional decisions?
Government accountability example · United States
President Donald Trump’s administration is reversing federal climate policy
This is one worked example of the national-government test above, not a comparative audit of major emitters. Country-by-country accountability remains a documented research gap.
- Ordered U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and reversal of international climate-finance policy.
- Directed agencies in January 2026 to withdraw the United States from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The UNFCCC is the parent treaty for international climate negotiations; the Paris Agreement operates under it.
- Prioritized expanded domestic energy development and revoked prior climate-focused executive actions.
- Paused new offshore-wind leasing and ordered reviews of existing wind policy.
- EPA finalized rescission of the 2009 greenhouse-gas endangerment finding for motor vehicles and related vehicle standards in February 2026.
Paris order · UNFCCC/IPCC memorandum · Energy order · Wind memorandum · EPA final rule
What can a person do?
Move institutions, reduce lock-in, strengthen resilience
Personal choices matter most when they also change systems, markets, norms or political incentives. This is a menu, not a purity test.
Use political power
Ask candidates and officials for quantified emissions, resilience and implementation records—not slogans. Vote in national and local elections.
Act locally
Track building codes, transit, utility planning, land use, wildfire preparation, flood protection and emergency readiness.
Change durable purchases
When replacing a vehicle, appliance, heating system or building component, compare lifetime energy, cost and emissions—not only upfront price.
Use workplace leverage
Ask whether company targets cover absolute emissions, suppliers, capital spending and executive accountability.
Follow the money
Review pensions, banks, insurers and investments for both climate exposure and financed emissions; distinguish disclosure from actual transition.
Support evidence infrastructure
Back public monitoring, local journalism, scientific institutions, community resilience and organizations with measurable theories of change.
Method and limits
Built to be corrected
Evidence rule
Primary scientific and institutional sources anchor measurements and policy records. Corporate, political and advocacy claims are treated as interested-party evidence and require corroboration.
Update rule
Every headline metric carries a date. Annual reports, revised datasets, policy changes and corrections should update the ledger before changing the public assessment.