Collective Signal  ·  Maui Mayor 2026 field test
Direct evidence comparison

Promises, record, proposals and feasibility

This table compares the two general-election finalists using examples rather than themes. Analytical judgments are explained alongside the supporting evidence.

TestBissenSugimura
Past statement or recordIn 2022, said Maui should invest in alternative industries before limiting lodging options that support jobs.Five Council terms; chaired budget work; voted against Bill 9 on both readings.
Observable follow-throughAdministration later proposed Bill 9. Public evidence reviewed does not show that alternative industries were established first.Her Bill 9 vote is clear and consistent. Broader evidence that she materially fixed permitting or infrastructure during Council tenure is less conclusive.
Housing delivered or enabledCounty reports 500+ affordable/workforce homes completed in 2025, 700+ under construction, and $250M+ allocated supporting 2,883 units. Attribution and affordability terms vary by project.Points to permitting and infrastructure as bottlenecks; has budget and legislative exposure but has not yet published a complete unit-delivery ledger.
Future mechanismHousing investment, infrastructure and conversion of apartment-zoned TVRs to resident use.Speed permit/project reviews and fund water, wastewater and roads that unlock construction.
Does the mechanism plausibly reach the goal?Mixed. Infrastructure spending can enable homes; forced TVR conversion has uncertain yield and large collateral risks.Plausible. Directly targets known supply constraints, but needs staffing, process and unit targets.
Transparency and accountabilityPromised weekly project aging reports in 2022. A public, project-level dashboard sufficient to verify that promise was not located in this review.Campaign emphasizes honesty and accountability but has not yet committed to a detailed public performance dashboard.
Best evidenceActual executive experience; major housing and infrastructure allocations during disaster recovery.Relevant county experience, budget knowledge, defensible Bill 9 vote, clearer causal housing strategy.
Largest concernPolicy inconsistency, weak public measurability and whether activity has translated into sufficient results.Whether five terms produced enough reform and whether executive promises become quantified commitments.

The comparison in plain language

Bissen asks voters to credit the difficulty of the assignment and the scale of activity. That is legitimate, but incumbency also creates a higher duty to show what was promised, what was completed, what failed and why.

Sugimura asks voters to believe that county knowledge plus executive authority will convert into faster delivery. Her policy mechanism is stronger, but the website should continue pressing her for numbers rather than accepting direction alone.

Issue-by-issue worked examples

How the same evidence changes the candidate comparison